Summary
- 2026/27 output: 18.757 million tonnes — a record low, roughly 44% below the 2021/22 peak
- Industry demand: 37–45 million tonnes/year → many plants running at 20–30% of capacity
- Official 49-province survey (Jul–Aug 2026, government observers): area +2.29% but yield −1.32% on disease and infected planting stems
- 2026 export value estimated below 70,000M baht, from a 155,498M peak in 2022
- Four demands to government, plus a proposal for urgent imports of resistant varieties
The past week brought the loudest alarm Thailand’s cassava industry has sounded in years. On 10 August 2026, the four principal associations of the sector — the Thai Tapioca Trade Association, the Thai Tapioca Products Factory Association, the Thai Tapioca Starch Association, and the Northeastern Tapioca Trade Association — held a joint press conference declaring what they called “the most severe raw material shortage in history” and urged the government to make the problem a national agenda item (sources: the associations’ press-conference document and Siam Business News, 10 Aug 2026).
The numbers in the press-conference document
The historical table released with the statement shows the decline step by step. Fresh-root production, as surveyed by the four associations, stood at 31.6 million tonnes in the 2020/21 season, peaked at 33.5 million tonnes in 2021/22, then slid season after season to 18.757 million tonnes for 2026/27 — a drop of roughly 44% from the peak in just five years. Domestic root demand, which once ran as high as 47.2 million tonnes a year, has been forced to shrink along with the missing raw material; the industry as a whole still needs roughly 37–45 million tonnes per year. The result: many processing plants are reported to be running at only 20–30% of installed capacity (source: the associations’ press-conference document, 10 Aug 2026; capacity figure as reported by Siam Business News).
On the trade side, the document lays out the full export-value series: 121,797 million baht (2021), a record “golden year” of 155,498 million baht (2022), then a decline every year — 125,858, 109,728, and 96,604 million baht in 2025. For 2026 the associations’ own full-year estimate is below 70,000 million baht; that is their assessment, not our forecast (source: press-conference document, 10 Aug 2026).
The official 2026/27 survey: numbers from the field, 49 provinces
What makes the 18.757-million-tonne figure carry weight is where it comes from. The associations’ joint survey team made three field rounds (1–3 July, 13–17 July, and 1–7 August 2026) covering 49 growing provinces, with observers from the Department of Agricultural Extension and the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives. The conclusions, dated 7 August 2026:
- Harvest area is expected to rise from 6.615 to 6.767 million rai (+2.29%) — attractive root prices are pulling farmers back from sugarcane, maize, and rubber, but expansion is capped by the shortage of planting stems.
- Average yield is expected to fall from 2.809 to 2.772 tonnes per rai (−1.32%) — diseased and immature planting stems are still in use nationwide, Cassava Mosaic Disease (CMD) and witches’ broom disease keep spreading without effective control, and Super El Niño weather has added severe stress.
- Total production is estimated at 18.757 million tonnes, marginally above last season (+0.94%) — put plainly, output is stabilising at a record low, not recovering.
By region, the Northeast remains the backbone at 10.76 million tonnes (+2.56%), led by Nakhon Ratchasima, the country’s top producer at 2.38 million tonnes (+3.26%). The North stands at 4.53 million tonnes (−0.80%) and the Central region at 3.47 million tonnes (−1.62%). Under the surface there are sharp moves in both directions: Phetchabun (+22.09%), Saraburi (+22.56%), and Lopburi (+19.47%) are expanding fast, while Loei (−11.20%), Prachinburi (−10.64%), and Chachoengsao (−9.03%) are clearly contracting (source: survey report and province table, 7 Aug 2026).
The survey team adds a caution: these estimates can still move, because diseased stems reduce both yield and starch content, and high prices are tempting some growers to dig roots before full maturity — hurting both weight and starch quality (source: survey report, 7 Aug 2026).
What is driving the shortage
The survey report describes several problems feeding each other. Good CMD-resistant planting stems are so scarce that farmers plant low-quality or infected stems, which spreads the disease further. Production costs — fuel, fertiliser, labour, and the stems themselves — keep climbing amid a labour shortage. Debt pressure pushes some growers to harvest early for cash flow, which degrades both the roots and the next generation of planting material at the same time (source: survey report, 7 Aug 2026).
The demands to government — plus one more from the survey team
The press-conference document groups the urgent demands into four areas: (1) treat the disease crisis and variety upgrading as a national agenda; (2) reform production structure and irrigation, targeting a return to 35 million tonnes within three years; (3) raise trade standards and keep market mechanisms fair; and (4) control imports and exports while integrating a central industry database (source: press-conference document, 10 Aug 2026).
Notably, the survey report goes one step further: it proposes considering urgent, specially-managed imports of high-quality cassava varieties from abroad under proper phytosanitary controls, to multiply into a domestic source of clean planting stock — and incentives for farmer registration to build an accurate central database (source: survey report, 7 Aug 2026).
The view from Nakhon Ratchasima
The issue moved onto the political stage on 14 August 2026, when Jakraphop Penkair, a party-list MP for Pheu Thai, visited Nakhon Ratchasima — the country’s largest growing province, as the survey above confirms — and summarised local output as having fallen to less than half of what the domestic market needs. He proposed a “Sandbox” pilot: gather the scattered research, data, and proposals into a single action plan, test it in demonstration areas, then scale it out (source: Voice TV, 14 Aug 2026).
Resistant-variety research is already moving
The encouraging news is that the research side is not standing still. A study by a Thai research team published in Scientific Reports (Nature Portfolio) in April 2025 developed a screening method using peptide biomarkers, detected by mass spectrometry, to identify CMD-resistant cassava varieties faster. The work compared five resistant lines from the IITA institute, including TME B419, against six Thai commercial varieties such as Kasetsart 50, Rayong 72, and Huay Bong 60. Tools like this help breeding programmes pick resistant parent lines with more precision — a direct answer to the industry’s call for clean, resistant planting stock (source: Scientific Reports, 12 Apr 2025).
What this means for starch buyers and growers
For tapioca starch buyers, the tight raw-material situation is already visible in published prices: the Thai Tapioca Starch Association quoted the domestic starch price at 22.30 baht/kg as of 11 August 2026. Planning orders further ahead and keeping a steady dialogue with producers matters more now than in normal years. For growers, the one point every source in this story agrees on — the declaration, the survey team, and the researchers — is that clean, disease-free planting stems are where recovery starts; sourcing them reliably is the best investment of this planting season.
As a native tapioca starch manufacturer, TQ Industry Starch follows the raw-material situation closely and is always ready to answer customer questions. See our product range on the products page.
Sources
- Press-conference document “Cassava Crisis” — Thai Tapioca Trade Association, Thai Tapioca Products Factory Association, Thai Tapioca Starch Association, and Northeastern Tapioca Trade Association (10 Aug 2026)
- Cassava Production and Trade Survey Report, 2026/27 season, with province-by-province table — joint survey team of the four associations, observed by the Department of Agricultural Extension and the Office of Agricultural Economics (7 Aug 2026)
- Siam Business News — Four Thai cassava associations declare severe root shortage crisis (10 Aug 2026): https://siambusinessnews.com/90408
- Voice TV — MP Jakraphop on the Nakhon Ratchasima cassava crisis (14 Aug 2026): https://www.voicetv.co.th/read/y3oNkBSX9
- Thai Tapioca Starch Association — Weekly Tapioca Starch Price (as of 11 Aug 2026): https://www.thaitapiocastarch.org/en/information/statistics/weekly_tapioca_starch_price
- Scientific Reports — Identification of peptidome-based biomarkers of cassava mosaic disease resistance in different cassava varieties (12 Apr 2025): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-97452-y